Towards a global One Health index: a potential assessment tool for One Health performance.

BACKGROUND: A One Health approach has been increasingly mainstreamed by the international community, as it provides for holistic thinking in recognizing the close links and inter-dependence of the health of humans, animals and the environment. However, the dearth of real-world evidence has hampered application of a One Health approach in shaping policies and practice. This study proposes the development of a potential evaluation tool for One Health performance, in order to contribute to the scientific measurement of One Health approach and the identification of gaps where One Health capacity building is most urgently needed. METHODS: We describe five steps towards a global One Health index (GOHI), including (i) framework formulation; (ii) indicator selection; (iii) database building; (iv) weight determination; and (v) GOHI scores calculation. A cell-like framework for GOHI is proposed, which comprises an external drivers index (EDI), an intrinsic drivers index (IDI) and a core drivers index (CDI). We construct the indicator scheme for GOHI based on this framework after multiple rounds of panel discussions with our expert advisory committee. A fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is adopted to determine the weights for each of the indicators. RESULTS: The weighted indicator scheme of GOHI comprises three first-level indicators, 13 second-level indicators, and 57 third-level indicators. According to the pilot analysis based on the data from more than 200 countries/territories the GOHI scores overall are far from ideal (the highest score of 65.0 out of a maximum score of 100), and we found considerable variations among different countries/territories (31.8-65.0). The results from the pilot analysis are consistent with the results from a literature review, which suggests that a GOHI as a potential tool for the assessment of One Health performance might be feasible. CONCLUSIONS: GOHI-subject to rigorous validation-would represent the world's first evaluation tool that constructs the conceptual framework from a holistic perspective of One Health. Future application of GOHI might promote a common understanding of a strong One Health approach and provide reference for promoting effective measures to strengthen One Health capacity building. With further adaptations under various scenarios, GOHI, along with its technical protocols and databases, will be updated regularly to address current technical limitations, and capture new knowledge.

Understanding systemic risk induced by climate change

The systemic risk induced by climate change represents one of the most prominent threats facing humanity and has attracted increasing attention since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of 2019. The existing literature highlights the importance of systemic risk induced by climate change, but there are still deficiencies in understanding its dynamics and assessing the risk. Aiming to bridge this gap, this study develops a theoretical framework and employs two cases to illustrate the concept, origin, occurrence, propagation, evolution, and assessment framework of systemic risk induced by climate change. The key findings include: 1) systemic risk induced by climate change derives from the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions, increasingly complex connections among different socioeconomic systems, and continuous changes in exposure and vulnerability;2) systemic risk induced by climate change is a holistic risk generated by the interconnection, interaction, and dynamic evolution of different types of single risks, and its fundamental, defining feature is cascading effects. The extent of risk propagation and its duration depend on the characteristics of the various discrete risks that are connected to make up the systemic risk;3) impact domains, severity of impact, and probability of occurrences are three core indicators in systemic risk assessment, and the impact domains should include the economy, society, homeland security, human health, and living conditions. We propose to deepen systemic risk research from three aspects: to develop theories to understand the mechanism of systemic risk;to conduct empirical research to assess future risks;and to develop countermeasures to mitigate the risk.